How DNT and DCT voters could decide the next government

Though the Primary round win may look like an outright DPT victory which got the most number of votes and got 33 out of 47 constituencies the political math shows that anything could be possible on 13th July 2013.

This is because if most of the DNT and DCT voters identify PDP as their second ‘choice of change’ after DNT or DCT then come 13th July 2013 PDP could well form the next government.

Though a bit farfetched at the moment DPT strategists will already be looking at the numerical electoral threat of DNT and DCT voters who now constitute deciding voters in as many as 13 DPT constituencies.

These constituencies where DPT only has a narrow to medium margin that can be easily overtaken by mainly DNT voters are first DNT’s own wins in Phuentsholing and Wamrong followed by major share of votes in Drujyegang-Tseza, Lhamoyzingkha-Trashiding, Gelephu, Dorokha-Tading, Pagli Samtse, Deothang-Gomdar, North Thimphu,South Thimphu, Drakteng-Langthel, Bardo-Trong and Kilkorthang Mendrelthang.

If PDP which already has 12 constituencies can swing the ‘change vote’ their way then they in theory could get a total of 25 constituencies, enough to comfortably cross the simple majority threshold of 24 MPs to form the government in a 47 member National Assembly.

In addition to the above the total votes of PDP, DNT and DCT combined would be much more than DPT’s total vote gained during the Primary round.

PDP President Tshering Tobgay taking a cautious and at the same time confident line said that there is six weeks left and anything can happen in that time.

He said, “In addition to the good support received by the new parties the overwhelming support received by PDP is an indication of the mood of the people who want change.”

On the possibilities of cooperating or working with the new parties the PDP President said, “I think we all championed from a common platform which is change and because our platform is common our objectives will be the same.”

Extending an olive branch to the new parties the PDP President said, “It goes without saying that we should be able to work together.” A DNT and PDP tango would be easier given that many of them belonged to the same party at one time.

Dr Tandin of DNT said that his party had not discussed on the issue of supporting anyone else and would be discussing what to do on various issues in the coming days.

Lily Wangchuk said that it would be up to those who voted for DCT to choose the next party they want to vote for.

What might make the position of both PDP and DPT tricky is that both DNT and DCT votes while being votes for change are also not necessarily in favor of any particular party. According to political observers many DNT votes were related to the fact that voters neither wanted to vote for DPT or even PDP. In the case of DCT it had its own loyal band of supporters centered on Lily Wangchuk and the party’s young candidates.

The challenge for PDP will be to present itself as a second option or in some cases as a ‘lesser evil’ to the voters of the two new parties. For DPT the main challenge will be to ensure that this change vote given to the two new parties is not added to PDP which could effectively ruins DPT chances in the General Elections.

The PDP hopes are centered on winning the south, west and parts of central Bhutan comprehensively and also attempt at breaking through DPT’s eastern fortress. For DPT the challenge will be easier at the moment on holding on to its gains but it needs to watch where the DNT and DCT votes go.

With the opposition leader already indicating his need to strengthen his Eastern base and with DPT bound to be doing the math in PDP’s 12 constituencies the 13th July 2013 outcome could still be anybody’s day.

Tenzing Lamsang

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38 comments

  1. DPT is a sure win in the GE, to form next govt. 

    • yah but they don’t divide the citizens and this is very dangerous. if the presidents are allowed to deliver campaign speeches in sharcop in the east for better coverage and understanding of the people, the candidates in the south must be allowed to give camping speeches in lhotsampa for the same reason. All are equal under the law of palden dukpa and for GNH

  2. i dont know! though i support dpt candidate in my constituency…as a CS the 20% housing allowance offer by PDP is tempting!

  3. Could be anyone’s day but i probably think that DPT will win 30 out of 47!!

  4. More than 50% of the electorate did not support DPT. Under the circumstance PDP and DNT should join together under the umbrella of PDP. It should be seen as the 2 parties forming coalition government with Tshering Tobgay as PM and Dorji Choden as Deputy PM. The 2 parties have captures 14 seats and they need 9 more to form the government. They have good chances in Samdrup Jongkhar, Thimphu, getting 2 more in Samtse, Chumey-Ura in Bumthang, Langthel-Dragten in Tongsa, and one in Zhemgang.
    I am a Sharchokpa. When I look at the result of the primary round I am disappointed with my fellow Sharchokpas. It shows they are misinformed and not aware of the reality like the Punaps, Wandis and Haps. This election is about saving Bhutan from corruption. Say NO to corruption and Yes to PDP.
    Rise up, rise up, rise up
    Sharchokpas brothers and sisters
    You have still not awakened from your sleep.
    Rise up and do what is good for Druk Yul.

    • From now on, please change your census to HAA if you like the OL so much.

      • I will not change my census because I will be PDP’s candidate from here in 2018. I want to prove that Sharchokpas are not naive and cannot be fooled all the time. I want to prove that what is good for Bhutan is good for Sharchokpas.

    • Sonoma, I think you are made fool by ex-OL. Please follow his interview with BBS Dawa and decide whether you can be convinced by his promises. Politicians do make huge unbelievable promises but any where in the democratic world things are hardly materialized at the end of their term. We don’t right to take them in court either. Bhutan can not be exception if we make wrong choice. We need to hear from two sides and judge ourselves.

      • DPT said the rupee crisis is temporary. This is simply not true. It is to mislead the voters. Supporters of DPT should learn to differentiate facts from fiction.
        Mongarpas, you are the real victims of Gyalpozhing land scam. How on the earth Mongarpas support DPT?

      • Mr. dapon,
        how could you possibly think ex-OL is fooling somebody when we haven’t testified his commitments. we did it for DPT they failed. Your post should be postponed till 2018 after PDP finishes its term. well by then you will embrace him. Please don’t let yourself to regrade over this. Vote for PDP. i will get you a good recipe to make an ara out of Nuts….lol you will like it .

  5. expecting 24=23 candidates in the assembly

  6. May be you need to remove your own veil that is obstructing your rational to support PDP. PDP is all about money money money. Helicopter.. bolero… allowances…. people know the tricks of politics and we sharshokpas far more wiser than you presume.

    Welcome to political world… it is all about trust, confidence and reliability. We support DPT because we feel DPT strives to uphold this sacred principles to promote healthy democratic system in Bhutan.

    You talk about corruption…. what sort of corruption you mean to highlight with respect to DPT? C’mon this happened before DPT government and needless to say that instead DPT set perfect precedence that any parties or individuals involved in corruption will be dealt accordingly. Two MPs resigned and former PM allowed ACC to investigate the case. So… don’t drag this issue to support your statement.

    • Sadly our Tashigangpas are always excited to elect only criminals as their leaders. First minjur n now jigme  tshelthrium what is going on? Can’t we make judgement ?

    • Bravo. Well said Mr. Pema. Even PDP were selected and say they are able to supply 205 bolero, at the most only 3 to 4 people from each geog will be benefited and rest will just corruption using for personal purpose. So PDP is not planning to take corruption at the rural (Geog) level if there is any corruption sa they said so.

      Its so sad the so called educated class of citizen of Bhutan is not able to understand the fact while the rural people in sharchop were able to detects the lies and over promises PDP makes.

      If the merits of the citizen of bhutan is still intact, result of the election will just same as election in 2008. Its had to believe but 13th July will tell us … lets wait for that day.

      DPT u dont need any luck from me since, gods are with you for amazing things your party have done this nation and its people.

  7. Except for those losers like Dr.Lotay, Dr.Tandin Dorji, Aum Sangay Zam, Nima Tshering, who will definitely vote for PDP, candidates who were actually supposed to be the game changers for DNT, haha, all got egg on their faces. 

    • Please follow closely what ex-OL said in his interview with BBS Dawa. Very interesting. Vote buying tactics and Politics making people fool. Lets see what ex PM says 2day.

      • Only people from the western part of Bhutan believe the bullshit that the OL is promising, the people from the east are way smarter then them except for people like Sonoma above, who can’t think for themselves.

  8. You are an intoxicated sharchokpa and do not try to intoxicate us. There is no question of regionalism as sharchokpas or not. It is a question of DPT or PDP. Helicopters, Voleros, Excavators, Power tillers, BODs, geog banks and two millions each for all geogs per annum amount to about 4 billions and we wonder where will such a huge fund come from. Instead of giving us allowances, PDP’s government may even have to cut our current salaries. Do not count the chickens before they are hatched. PDP has actually become much weaker from 2008 with the departure of some strong candidates. The fact of the matter as of now is that If PDP is to try and win 13 more constituencies, DPT could easily try and win few more constituencis.

  9. I will give u my prediction. It will be 40-7 in favor for DPT. No question asked. When the results come out…better not ask me how.

  10. i am of the view that the PDP will be again in the opposition seat with improved number at 15-20 members and the DPT will probably have the upper hand but with dwindled numbers. Ha ha going to be an interesting game in the assembly hall for the coming 5 more years.

  11. What is the most logical way to vote? 

    I wanted a government that will have very high ambitions. I wanted a government that had intelligent plans for the country’s development. Of course this is hard to expect as in most countries we have seen greedy politicians. But then again some countries have done pretty well despite of it run by the so called “politicians-are-greedy” people. Why? Because there are some who have the real drive to give what a country needs, what its people really need, What a country really needs to be a real GNH country! But then even if you think we may not have such people in our current party, let’s do this! 

    I have nothing against DPT, but my logical sense tells me that they have served once- “I say thank you, DPT!” whatever your verdict may be for DPT’s ways of governance may be, “I say thank you, DPT!”  

    So let’s do not decide to vote by who is there in party – your father, mother, aunt, uncle, son, daughter, etc !  

    Let’s vote for a new party! 

    Let’s us vote for a new government! 

    Let’s vote for a new party for the good foundation of democracy!  

    Let’s vote for a new party to foster competitiveness – cut throat competition! 

    Let’s vote for new party to create a circumstance which will automatically look to address many issues of a country (or else the other strong will immediately defeat this new party in the next term). 

    Let’s vote for a new party for betterment of our country! 

    Let’s vote for your beloved country-Bhutan’s good future, for who knows who will be in the political party – may be not more your father, mother, uncle, daughter, son…but you will definitely know this – that you will have a prosperous, peaceful country, and a GNH country.  

    This is probably how some countries are doing well – they have two or more strong parties that is working their ass off to stay as the next elected government. They know that their poor performance means, they will be voted out by the people. 

    Let’s vote logically! Let’s vote for the better future of our country! 

    Palden Drukpa Gaylo ! 

    • As you mentioned..we will vote logically…that is to DPT..why???? No one will feel like to travel in a car whose driver is not well experienced and know how!!! Like wise we don’t want to lose our precious votes to those who are not up to our country’s demand at this stage!! If you give votes to PDP..do you think it will deliver 100% of what it promised so far??? Nonsense!!! From mouth they say our country is in huge debt but if they win provide such huge promises…We don’t want such a high ambitious politicians!! They can do anything risking our country’s peace, prosperity and sustainability to achieve their promises!! Very danger yaar!!! We want politicians who are far sighted, well experienced and can able to drive country’s future sustainably without risking…So DPT is the right and well experienced party who can deserve Bhutanese votes (100% votes)…if we vote for PDP…it will take their 5 years tenure as gaining experiences and knowing which tract they should follow and which not…But DPT, they already knew during last five years where to go..which districts and what type of developmental activities they should bring in…now they can drive very smoothly on a right track..Regarding PDP..they got good experiences being opposition party..and PDP is right party to be again opposition party till 2018 in order to bring very good judgment in a country..

      Therefore, let us all vote logically to DPT for brighter and better future of our country without losing votes to unhatched eggs….

    • Supporters of DCT and DNT should remember what ex-OL said to the people during his primary round campaigning. He said that people should not vote out sympathy and this isn’t movie making businesses. So try to break open what he meant and to whom such remark was directed. I would definitely say his stark remark was aimed to undermine DCT and DNT’s sentiments they occasionally shared to the electorates during their campaigning. Analyze it thoroughly and exercise your priceless franchise for a right party. If a person is not in a position to respect others’ outlook that person can never be a good leader.

    • You vote the way you want to, we will vote the way we want to and stop preaching.

  12. at wat time today ex-pm interview regains la.

  13. Hi people,
    I am very fascinated by all the post which are almost 90% pro-DPT. I have a simple question to ask anyone who could give a stupid answer. In 2008 dpt got 45 seats (set a record in the history of democracy) with worlds smallest opposition with 2 members. 5 years have passed. now they aren’t even sure to get 50% of seats? why? how?

    They couldn’t reinstate followings:
    X Bhutanese sovereignty by trying to make political tie with other country and being disgrace to existing friendship.
    X Bhutanese Economy: failure to study, monitor and analyze which resuted to crunch (actually its a crisis) anyways they even failed drive private sector business(economy) because they believe in monopoly. Ex. Mining and other manufacturing industries, By the way what happened to The Mackenzie’s 90M USD project????? i suppose they have got a recipe to make Bhutan rich????
    X Social Security: Raise of Many Aged ppl wandering with out food and shelter, more rapist, drug addicts. child labour and suicide cases….without any security for low wage workers which contributes 15-20% workforce in Bhutan, well there are countless on this chart.
    X Unemployment Rate. with all defamatory and wrong statistical report of declination. (is this what they called RTI all the time, it should be rather (WITP)
    X People’s insanity (especially western Bhutan) by involving in many corruptions and scams.
    X failed to carry out developmental activities rather taking due credits of BPC, Bhutan Telecom, Indo-Bhutanese friendship, foreign donor agencies (ADB, JICA, DENIDA, World Bank, other UN programmes in Bhutan)
    almost all farm roads (excavated road) are washed off….without proper maintenance plan. (for the kind information they are already in Five year plan)
    Ambitious mega hydro power project ….what if GOI cuts the deal of buying expensive hydro power as they have already signed nuclear power deal with US. which is proved to to far cheaper (or) if Himalayan glaciers get dried after 10-15 yrs due to global warming. Anyways the project provided 100s of employment for learned Bhutanese Men as truckers and women as waiters….kudos.
    XXX well i dont have time today i will get back soon…so people, do u all still think haaps parops punaps are insane voting for PDP despite all these they did……believe me, do some simple reading and you will find out rather all the time remaining boozed with ashom juice..lol tke cre

  14. PDP’s 20% Housing Allowances is worth considering my vote for the party. Besides the part has tons of new ideas….

  15. PDP has come a long way, from 2 constituencies to 12 in the primary round. That is a tremendous achievement. If they tread sensibly from hereon, they have a very good scope in 2018. But if their intention is to “build Rome in a day”, I am afraid it’s a tough call.

    • The saddest is that a political party candidate from the west told the dzongkhag/demkhong during informal gathering that if he/she losses the election there won’t be lyonpo from the west and not potential candidate for present and past, no successful border talk with the north, and will not formalize establishment of national referral hospital. Further, the innocent people were informed that for him/her job is always secured and greener as the higher authority would send him/her as ambassador to other countries. The statement clearly shows that a candidate if dying for power and with lot of ego ” a must to win”. We don’t want such Candide from the west and our intention is clear and just to have change and new face.

  16. What is the difference between the visions and missions of DPT and PDP? DPT thinks for the larger interest of nation and people. 10000 Mega watt hydro power, Education City, Pedestrian day, tax revision, IT park etc may have little impact on people’s lives at present, but all these will benefit our country in various ways for a very long time. Above all, the economic self reliance is on the verge of achieving. PDP’s helicopters, power tillers, excavators may have some direct impacts on the people. But what will the party do for nation’s longterm benefit? That’s why DP? DPT leaders are farsighted while the PDP leaders are shortsighted. Also, I feel that pay revision, housing allowances should be out of politics. Because, when PDP promises 20 percent, another party may promise 40 percent and the value can go on.That’s solely for political mileage, but what will happen to nation’s economy and inflation if the pay revision and allowances keep increasing for the sake of political gains? I’m a civil servant, but I’m not tempted by pay revision and allowances for voting because we all have the responsibility of serving our nation.

  17. DPT is sure to form next government….all the best…humbly request don’t buy new prados for lonpos now….

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