The Bhutanese Leading the way.
The first whispers of winter are stirring in the mountains, but the true story may be unfolding thousands of kilometers away. In the central and eastern Pacific, a subtle drop in sea surface temperatures has scientists on high alert. This cooling could signal La Niña, a climate phenomenon capable of reshaping rainfall, snowfall, and temperatures across South Asia, but exactly how it will hit the highlands remains unknown. Communities and authorities are left preparing for a season that could swing from boon to threat in a matter of weeks.
At the National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM), experts have been tracking the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the cycle of warm, cool, and neutral ocean phases, since early 2025. Current conditions are neutral, but subtle signals hint at a shift toward La Niña.
“We see early indicators, but the real impact on local weather is still uncertain,” an NCHM official said, stressing that a detailed winter assessment will follow once global prediction centers confirm the patterns.
The potential consequences are stark. A snowy, cold season could fill hydropower reservoirs and secure water supplies, yet even moderate frost or sudden cold waves could devastate crops, livestock, and rural livelihoods. The rugged terrain magnifies unpredictability, one valley may shiver under frost while a neighboring slope remains untouched, making forecasting a challenge for both scientists and communities.
Across the region, predictions clash. Some forecasters see a typical winter ahead, while others warn that even a weak La Niña could extend frost spells and intensify snowfall in mountainous zones. Global centers indicate a high likelihood of development, but experts caution that this year’s Pacific cooling is subtle and may not follow the historical playbook, leaving timing and intensity in question.
The stakes go beyond weather. Sectors reliant on winter precipitation, particularly hydropower and agriculture, could see windfalls or face disaster depending on how events unfold. Climate change adds a wild card, potentially offsetting La Niña’s cooling influence and further complicating planning.
For now, authorities and residents remain on alert, monitoring distant oceans and subtle atmospheric shifts, knowing that even phenomena thousands of kilometers away can ripple down into their valleys and slopes. Updated assessments expected in November may clarify what lies ahead, but for now, the season remains a question mark, a test of preparation in a world where weather is increasingly unpredictable.
