Why NCHM could not predict the hailstorm in Tsirang

The recent hailstorm wreaked havoc on the agricultural sector in Tsirang, adding to a series of extreme weather events that have affected Bhutan this year. The hailstorm struck on 10 April, causing significant damage to crops and leaving locals grappling with the aftermath.

In February, the country was under the influence of a western disturbance and moisture from the Arabian Sea, resulting in mostly cloudy weather with light rainfall/snowfall across Northern, Western, Central, and Eastern parts of Bhutan. Strong western disturbances in early February also brought gusty winds to several regions, including Gasa, Thimphu, Haa, Paro, and Wangdue.

Explaining the cause of the hailstorm in Damphu, meteorologists highlighted the atmospheric instability during the spring season in Bhutan. The region experiences a mix of cold northerly winds and warm southerly winds, leading to atmospheric instability conducive to hailstorms and thunderstorms.

The National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) official said, “The presence of a cyclonic circulation southwest of Bhutan resulted in moisture feeding into the southern regions. When this moisture-laden wind from the southwest interacted with the south-facing slopes of places like Damphu, it created an upward rising action, forming thick and tall clouds.”

“These conditions provided the perfect environment for the formation of hailstorms. Additionally, windy conditions contributed to an increased presence of dust particulates in the air, further aiding hailstone formation,” the official added.

Despite advancements in meteorological forecasting, predicting localized phenomena like hailstorms remains a challenge.

An official from NCHM stated that while their forecast models have a resolution of 3 km, they failed to predict the Damphu hailstorm. The official attributed this to the complexity of simulating relatively small-scale weather processes in the context of country’s unique topography.

However, NCHM remains committed to improving their models to better forecast such events in the future.

In the wake of the hailstorm, residents of Damphu, Tsirang are seeking assistance from the government. The hailstorm has caused extensive damage to crops, raising concerns about food security and livelihood in the region.

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