The Bhutanese Leading the way.
For the first time in many decades, the global tectonic plates of geopolitics are shifting and it will have significant impacts on Bhutan in the years to come.
The foreign policy of U.S. President Donald Trump is firstly an isolationist one that withdraws from its global role, and secondly there are indications that the US under Trump wants a return to Great Power politics and spheres of influence of the past.
The US withdrawal from its global role is already hurting many countries, including Bhutan, like in the case of WHO and possibly more international agencies to come. As pointed out by this paper it may well impact our grants and soft loans in the 13th plan.
A reason to worry is Trump’s constant statements on wanting to annex Greenland by any means and also Canada at times with the implicit argument that they fall in the sphere of influence of the USA.
This harkens back to a time when great powers had spheres of influence and preyed on weaker countries.
Already, Trump’s transactional stance on the Ukraine conflict and overtures to Russia has isolated European countries who are now preparing for a NATO without USA.
In Asia there are interesting changes as South Korea and Japan make friendly noises towards old rival China, and ties between India and China also seem to be warming up. ASEAN countries are watching keenly to see where the dice lands.
This does not mean a fundamental shift yet, but there is a growing realization in Asia that USA may not be around as a reliable partner with the main advantage going to China.
Trumps statements on Greenland and Canada provides strength to China’s claims over Taiwan and even the South China sea against smaller Asian countries who may now think twice about countering China, as the USA becomes increasingly unreliable, transactional and isolationist.
An impending trade war threatens to push the world into recession which will also have an impact on Bhutan’s economy and especially on tourism.
The withdrawal of U.S. leadership in climate initiatives hurts Bhutan’s sustainability goals in terms of funding and also direct climate impact.
Trump’s tough immigration policies will impact the Bhutanese community in USA, and also Bhutanese students and professionals seeking opportunities in the U.S.
These are stormy times and Bhutan will have to navigate the waters ahead carefully.
“Chance favors the prepared mind.”
– Louis Pasteur
China’s claims over Taiwan and even the South China sea against smaller Asian countries. And you forgot to mention, land enroachements by China to its neighbour countries – india, Bhutan, Nepal, Mongolia, Pakistan