The Bhutanese Leading the way.
The climate change projection report for 2024 reveals that the most vulnerable sectors are agriculture, hydropower, and forestry, affected by the rising temperature and changing precipitation patterns.
Exposure of the Population to Increased Monsoon Precipitation
As climate change progresses, the intensity and frequency of monsoon rains are expected to increase, leading to potential flood situations. The entire population is at risk, but the impacts will be felt most acutely in the country’s most populated areas.
By 2100, around 99 percent of country’s population will be exposed to a high to very high increase in monsoon precipitation across all climate scenarios. Thimphu, the capital and home to approximately 16 percent of the total population, is particularly vulnerable.
Nearly all of Thimphu’s residents are expected to experience this increase, with similar trends seen in Chhukha and Samtse, which together house about 20 percent of the nation’s people. These regions will face significant challenges as increased rainfall raises the risk of floods, endangering lives, property, and infrastructure.
Agricultural Sector: At the Mercy of the Monsoons
The report revealed that approximately 54 percent of Bhutan’s agricultural land will be exposed to a high increase in monsoon precipitation by 2040, a figure that could rise to 66 percent by 2060 under the most severe climate scenarios. Regions like Samtse, Chhukha, Sarpang, Dagana, and Wangdue Phodrang, which are critical to the country’s agricultural output, will bear the brunt of this change. These areas could see their crops damaged by floods, irrigation channels disrupted, and local food security threatened.
Rice, a staple crop in the country, is particularly vulnerable to the increasing monsoon rains. Rising precipitation levels could lead to flooding, which would devastate rice fields and reduce yields. By 2040, up to 75 percent of the country’s rice production will be exposed to high increases in monsoon precipitation, and by 2100, this figure could reach 100 percent.
Samtse, the largest rice-producing district, is at significant risk. All of its rice fields are expected to face very high increases in precipitation across all climate scenarios. Other key rice-producing districts like Dagana, Punakha, and Sarpang will also see their crops increasingly exposed to these threats. On the other hand, Trashigang, one of the highest rice-producing areas, may initially experience a decrease in rainfall, but by 2100, it will also face an increase, further complicating the situation for farmers.
While country’s cold climate might seem like a buffer against extreme heat, rising temperatures pose a significant threat, particularly in the summer. Thimphu, again, is at the forefront of this challenge. More than 95 percent of its population is likely to experience a temperature increase of 1-1.5°C by 2040, 1.5-2°C by 2060, and 3.5-4°C by 2100 under the worst-case climate scenario. These temperature increases could lead to heatwave-like conditions, especially in the warmer southern districts.
Regions like Chhukha, Dagana, Samdrup Jongkhar, Samtse, and Sarpang are already warmer than the rest of the country. As temperatures rise, nearly the entire population in these areas could be exposed to dangerous heat levels. By mid-century, under a moderate climate scenario, about 74 percent of the population in these southern districts may face a temperature increase of 2–2.5 °C, with a quarter of the population experiencing even higher increases.
Hydropower sector, a significant contributor to the economy, is also at risk due to climate change. The country’s hydropower plants depend on glacial runoff, which is predicted to decrease as glaciers shrink. This reduction could severely impact electricity generation, leading to economic losses and energy shortages. The precise impacts are still being studied, but the trend is clear: as glaciers retreat, the flow of water that powers Bhutan’s hydropower plants will diminish.
Forest, which cover most of the country, are vital for both the environment and the economy. However, the rising summer temperatures increase the risk of forest fires, particularly in the central and southern regions. As temperatures climb, the likelihood of forest fires will grow, threatening biodiversity, carbon storage, and livelihoods dependent on forestry.
