You may have heard your parents or grandparents say that this winter is not cold like the winters of years past or you yourself may have noted a warmer winter this year and everybody is right if one looks at the data.
The National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) has revealed critical data on Bhutan’s changing climate, showcasing a consistent rise in temperatures over the years. The annual average temperature graph for Bhutan indicates an increasing trend since 2018, with an average rise of 0.2°C. The variation in annual average temperatures since 1996 has been between 15.7°C and 17.2°C, highlighting significant warming.
NCHM reported that from 1991 to 2020, the overall temperature trend for Bhutan has been increasing, particularly in recent decades. However, the variation in trends between dzongkhags is attributed to the use of point station data rather than gridded datasets. Global gridded data corroborate that most dzongkhags are experiencing an increasing temperature trend consistent with global observations.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2024 is officially the warmest year on record. This conclusion is based on six unprecedented ocean heat. The past decade (2015-2024) has been the warmest in recorded history, marking an extraordinary streak of record-breaking temperatures. WMO highlighted that 2024 might be the first calendar year with a global mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average), placing the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement in grave danger.
NCHM officials explained that rising annual temperatures also translate to warmer winters in Bhutan.
They said that climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events globally, and Bhutan is no exception. Hot days, convective thunderstorms, and dry spells are becoming more common. The upward trend in daily maximum temperatures indicates more frequent short-term warming events and extreme weather such as heatwaves and dry spells.
When asked about the impact of rising temperatures on Bhutan’s glaciers, NCHM officials said, “Warming temperatures could accelerate glacier melting. However, increased precipitation due to climate variability might lead to higher accumulation in certain areas.”
The experts said that both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to increase across the country in the long run. The increase is more in the higher emission scenarios and in the long term. The increase in minimum temperature is more than that of maximum temperature, especially in the long term. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to increase more in the northern and central parts of the country enhancing the risk of heatwave-like situations and speeding up glacial melt
NCHM outlined the most significant risks that Bhutan faces due to accelerated glacial melt leading potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Bhutan has already experienced catastrophic GLOF events, such as the 1994 Luggye Tsho outburst that claimed 21 lives and damaged 1,781 acres of land.
Erratic and high-intensity rainfall, floods, and landslides are becoming more frequent. These events disrupt livelihoods, displace communities, and damage critical infrastructure.
Unpredictable weather events destroy crops, leaving farmers unprepared and exacerbating economic challenges for Bhutan’s agrarian communities.
During the monsoon season, landslides frequently disrupt county’s road networks, which are vital for trade, mobility, and commerce. In some cases, landslides create artificial dams in rivers, posing threats of landslide dam outburst floods (LDOFs).