The Bhutanese Leading the way.
It is still slated to be the third highest year though
According to figures from the Home Affairs Department of Australia, in the first six months of the financial year 2024-2025 for June, July, August, September, October, November and December 2024 a total of 2,662 visas have been granted to students and their dependents.
The break up is 1,211 students and 1,451 dependents with the continuing and unusual trend of Bhutan sending a very high number of dependents compared to other countries.
This means that while there is a major dip compared to the last two financial years of 2022-23 and 2023-24 this is still going to be the third highest year for migration.
In the same six-month period of July to December in 2023-24 a total of 6,603 Bhutanese had been granted visas, while in the same six-month period in 2022-23 the total was 6,499. This is compared to the fourth highest six-month period in 2019-20 which was 1,556.
The trend is that the six-month figure generally doubles or comes close to it. In 2023-24 a total of 9,787 Bhutanese left. The number would have been higher if not for tough new immigration rules that were announced in the middle of the financial year.
In the peak year of 2022-23 the total was 15,552 and in 2019-20 the total number was 2,933.
Therefore, going by the above trends, it is reasonable to assume that in 2024-25 on the lower side around 4,000 Bhutanese will get visas in 12 months, and on the higher side the number could be around 5,000 plus.
However, of the 2,662 who got visas in 2024-25 around 735 are already located in Australia which softens the blow as it means that students and family members already there must be extending their visas by having taken new courses or upgrading their courses. In 2023-24 a total of 1,223 were located in Australia of those granted visas while the figure was 1,620 in 2022-23.
The majority of the 2,662 visa holders in 2024-25 at 1,620 visa holders have headed for Western Australia which basically means Perth.
The large number of dependents mean that people are taking their family members, and this is clear in the data which shows 342 of those going are from ages 0 to 14.
The largest segment going are from the ages 20 to 29 group who make up 1,387 of the total.
Despite the tougher visa rules for 35 plus who cannot get work visas after college, there are still 742 in the 30 to 44 group getting visas.
The drop in 2024-25 is a result of much stricter visa and immigration rules over the last two years. From January 2025 under new rules students can no longer apply for visas using a Letter of Offer but need a Confirmation of Enrollment, which is the document that students receive after accepting an admission offer and paying tuition fees.
A student cap had also been set beginning 2025 for Australia whereby 270,000 foreign students are targeted for the whole year under the National Planning Level Quota.
At the same time the number for 2024-25 is still huge for a small country that has already seen so many students travelling to Australia in the last two years.
However, the decline in student numbers going out point to a long-term trend where higher than usual numbers will still travel to Australia, but this will be much lower than the last two peak years.
The other factor to be considered is also some Bhutanese coming back from Australia, especially those above the 35-age group and those finishing their visas.
However, for younger Bhutanese finishing their visas periods in a few years, many may come back and reapply for courses. Many Bhutanese are also determined not to come back and are exploring alternate destinations, like New Zealand, etc.
The decrease in the rush to Australia among the youth is not only the immigration rules there, but there are increasing numbers of Bhutanese youth who are looking to stay back in the country and try for the Civil Service Exams which offers higher pay and job security.
This idealistic young generation also moulded by DeSuups and Gyalsung and the messages of His Majesty The King are also looking to stay back and serve the country.
While working in Bhutan is an immediate attraction, there is also longer-term hope through the Gelephu Mindfulness City.
The emotional and momentous visit of His Majesty, Her Majesty and Their Royal Highnesses to Australia in October have also left an impression.
Chairman of the Association of Bhutanese Educational Consultancies (ABEC), Palden Tshering, said that he has always been saying that the high numbers of the past will come down and normalize to the pre-COVID levels, and that is what is starting to happen.
He said that as long as there are 1,000 to 1,500 students in a year going, minus dependents, then it will be sustainable for the consultancies, but there will be problems if the numbers go below that.
Palden advised that whatever be the destination, like Australia, Canada, New Zealand, it is important to do things properly.
He said that the major February 2025 intake is closed, with the numbers not meeting the records of the past two years. He predicted that total numbers will be around or under 4,000.
The Australia rush is not a recent phenomenon, but had always been bubbling under the surface and had been steadily increasing over the last two decades. The Home Affairs Department of Australia has updated some of the figures of the past for Bhutan.
In 2005-06 financial year, a modest 101 Bhutanese had sought visas of which 88 were students and only 13 were dependents.
This number increased to 560 in 2012-13 with 280 students and 280 dependents. The number further jumped to 1,480 in 2016-17 with 797 students and 683 dependents. The next big jump was in 2019-20 with 2,933 of which 1,447 were students and 1,486 were dependents.
There was a slow down due to the pandemic in 2020-21 with only 1,828 getting visas and in 2021-22 with 2,583 getting visas.
During the pandemic, the Australian government, faced with a labor shortage, removed the work hours restrictions for students and laid out the red carpet in effect.
The big explosion in numbers happened in 2022-23 with 15,552 getting visas and in 2023-24 with 9,787 getting visas.
